Category Archives: Investigacion y Desarrollo Tegnologico

Capacidad de crear consciencia a través de la luz

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Descubren el posible origen de la consciencia en el cerebro

Se generaría a través de biofotones capaces de generar procesos cuánticos

 

Investigadores canadienses han descubierto que el cerebro humano es capaz de transmitir información a través de la luz. Puede producir más de 1.000 millones de biofotones por segundo, un volumen suficiente para transmitir un gran número de bits con información, así como de generar procesos cuánticos capaces, hipotéticamente, de generar consciencia.

A pesar de los grandes avances en neurociencia, todavía hay preguntas fundamentales sin respuesta sobre el cerebro, incluyendo el origen de la experiencia subjetiva y la consciencia.

Según investigadores de la Universidad de Calgary, en Canadá, algunas respuestas sobre estas cuestiones podrían depender de nuevos mecanismos físicos, tal como explican en un artículo publicado en Arxiv.

Parten de la base de que, desde hace 100 años, se conoce que en el cerebro hay biofotones, es decir,  fotones de origen biológico que no son el resultado de los productos de una reacción enzimática específica. La longitud de onda de estos biofotones es de entre 200 y 1.300 nanómetros,  por lo que una gran parte de su espectro corresponde a la franja visible por el ojo humano.

Lo que han hecho estos investigadores es explorar si las neuronas utilizan la comunicación fotónica para intercambiar información,  además de las conocidas señales electroquímicas. Las neuronas se comunican entre sí a través de los pequeños espacios entre ellas, en un proceso conocido como transmisión sináptica basada en señales electroquímicas.

La comunicación fotónica entre neuronas, todavía hipotética para la ciencia, abre una nueva dimensión a los mecanismos cerebrales que permiten alumbrar la experiencia subjetiva y la consciencia, mecanismos que son desconocidos en gran parte todavía.

Según esta nueva investigación, los axones cubiertos de mielina podrían servir como guías de ondas fotónicas transmisoras de información entre neuronas. Se ha comprobado esta posibilidad mediante la modelización de la transmisión de luz a través de estos axones cubiertos de mielina.

El axón es una prolongación de las neuronas especializadas en conducir el impulso nervioso desde el cuerpo celular o soma hacia otra célula. La mielina es una estructura multilaminar formada por las membranas plasmáticas que rodean los axones. Forma una capa gruesa alrededor de los axones neuronales que permite la transmisión de los impulsos nerviosos a distancias relativamente largas gracias a su efecto aislante.

La información con luz es factible

En la modelización de estos axones, los investigadores realizaron diferentes cálculos sobre cómo se comportaría la luz en el proceso de transmisión de información mediante biofotones y concluyeron que la conducción de la luz a través de axones cubiertos de mielina es factible.

Comprobaron que axones de dos milímetros de largo, la longitud media de los axones del cerebro, pueden transmitir entre un 46% y un 96% de los biofotones que reciben. Asimismo, han calculado el volumen de datos que se podrían transmitir por este sistema.

Señalan que, si el cerebro de una rata genera un fotón por neurona y minuto, teniendo en cuenta que hay diez elevado a once neuronas en el cerebro humano, puede concluirse que el cerebro humano podría producir más de 1.000 millones de biofotones por segundo.

Para los investigadores, este volumen es más que suficiente para facilitar la transmisión de un gran número de bits conteniendo información, e incluso para permitir la creación de una enorme cantidad de entrelazamientos cuánticos.

Estos entrelazamientos cuánticos permitirían la conexión instantánea entre neuronas, aunque estén físicamente separadas entre sí y sin ningún canal físico de comunicación entre ellas, de una forma mucho más rápida que los canales electroquímicos de comunicación entre neuronas conocidos hasta ahora.

Los investigadores advierten que estos cálculos son aproximados y que poseen numerosas incertidumbres, ya que todavía no se conocen las propiedades ópticas de la mielina porque nadie las ha medido.

También advierten que los biofotones pueden propagarse en cualquier dirección, lo que arroja más incertidumbre sobre su hipotética capacidad para transmitir información en la dirección adecuada.


Más preguntas que respuestas

De momento, esta investigación arroja más preguntas que respuestas, explican los investigadores. La primera es, si realmente existen, ¿para qué usa el cerebro estos canales ópticos de comunicación?

Estos autores sugieren que los biofotones cerebrales podrían estar asociados a procesos cuánticos relacionados con el origen de la consciencia, si bien advierten que la comunicación cuántica necesita algo más que los canales de comunicación óptica que ellos han descubierto en un modelo.

Además, aunque es posible que existan moléculas sensibles a la luz en el cerebro, no hay constancia de que realmente sea así, ni tampoco de que actúen como procesadores cuánticos. Para avanzar en esta línea de investigación, los científicos proponen analizar las propiedades ópticas del tejido cerebral mediante una serie de experimentos específicos.

Con este trabajo se abre un nuevo campo de investigación para la biología cuántica, la rama de la Biología que estudia procesos que tienen lugar en seres vivos y que se basan en efectos característicos de la mecánica cuántica, tales como la superposición de estados, la coherencia cuántica o el efecto túnel.


Referencia

Are there optical communication channels in the brain? arXiv:1708.08887 [physics.bio-ph]

Los 3 horizontes de la innovación y la cultura del cambio

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The Three Horizons of innovation and culture change

In the autumn of 2009, I was invited to join the International Futures Forum (IFF) as one of a small group of ‘next generation’ members. The IFF is an international collaborative network of people committed to pooling their experience and insights to explore “the complex and confounding challenges that our world faces”, to “support a transformative response to those challenges” and to “enhance our capacity for effective action”.

One common perspective shared between the members of the IFF is that we need a more systemic approach to the complexity of the interconnected problems and opportunities that we face. Another shared belief is that, in order to appropriately respond to the changes around us, organizations, communities, businesses and governments must not only pay attention to possible short-term responses to symptoms of these crises, but must also address the underlying structural and systemic causes that drive these symptoms.

In addition, working with complex systems requires us to befriend uncertainty, change and unpredictability. We aim to engage communities in the deeper cultural dialogue that asks the kind of questions and proposes the kind of provisional answers that drive cultural transformation and continued learning.

IFF members and other futures practitioners (see Hodgson & Sharpe, 2007; Curry & Hodgson, 2008; Sharpe 2013) developed the ‘Three Horizons’ framework collaboratively over the last 10 years. ‘Three Horizons thinking’ is an effective method for making sense of and facilitating cultural transformation and exploring innovation and wise action in the face of uncertainty and not-knowing.

 
This graphic is not in the book chapter this excerpt is taken from. Source: H3Uni

The framework has been applied in a variety of contexts, including the future of intelligent infrastructures in the UK, technological foresight in the IT industry, transformative innovation in the Scottish education system, the future of Alzheimer’s research, rural community development, and executive leadership programmes. It is a versatile methodology for inviting people to explore the future potential of the present moment through a number of perspectives that all have to be considered if we are to steer our course wisely into an unpredictable future.

The ‘Three Horizons’ framework is a foresight tool that can help us to structure our thinking about the future in ways that spark innovation. It describes three patterns or ways of doing things and how their relative prevalence and interactions evolve over time. The change from the established pattern of the first horizon to the emergence of fundamentally new patters in the third occurs via the transition activity of the second horizon.

The model not only makes us think in interactive patterns, but more importantly “it draws attention to the three horizons always existing in the present moment, and that we have evidence about the future in how people (including ourselves) are behaving now” (Sharpe, 2013: 2).

Figure 2: Adapted from bit.ly/DRC229 with permission from IFF

The framework helps us to become more aware of how our individual and collective intentions and behaviours actively shape the future today. By mapping three ways of relating to the future from the perspectives of the three horizons we can bring the value of each of them to the conversation in a generative way that fosters understanding and future consciousness as the basis for collaborative action and transformative innovation.

I believe the three horizons offer an important framework for thinking about transformative innovation that can be used to facilitate the transition towards regenerative cultures. It can help us to structure our collective exploration as we start living the questions together as conscious participants in this transition. In this context, the first horizon (red) represents the currently prevalent systems that are beginning to show symptoms of decline and shortening cycles of crisis and temporary, but never fundamental, recovery.

In other words, Horizon 1 is ‘business as usual’, or ‘the world in crisis’ (H1). It is characterized by ‘sustaining innovation’ that keeps ‘business as usual’ going. Horizon 3 (green) is how we envision a ‘viable world’ (H3). We may not be able to define this future in every detail — as the future is always uncertain — yet we can intuit what fundamental transformations lie ahead, and we can pay attention to social, ecological, economic, cultural and technological experiments around us that may be pockets of this future in the present. Horizon 2 (blue) represents ‘world in transition’ (H2) — the entrepreneurial and culturally creative space of already technologically, economically and culturally feasible innovations that can disrupt and transform H1 to varying degrees and can have either regenerative, neutral or degenerative socio-ecological effects.

At the point where these H2 innovations become more effective than the existing practices, they begin to replace aspects of ‘business as usual’. Yet some forms of ‘disruptive innovation’ ultimately get absorbed by H1 without leading to fundamental and transformative change, while other forms of ‘disruptive innovation’ can be thought of as a possible bridge from H1 to H3.

Within the context of the transition towards regenerative cultures we introduce a value bias into our use of the Three Horizons methodology: solutions that create conditions conducive to life and establish regenerative patterns are valued more highly than those that don’t. Throughout this book I refer to H3 as perspectives and patterns that intend to bring about a ‘viable world’ of regenerative cultures able to creatively transform in continuous exploration of the most appropriate responses to a rapidly changing socio-ecological context.

Cultivating future consciousness with Three Horizons perspectives

The essence of Three Horizons practice is to develop both an individual and a shared awareness of all three horizons, seeing them as perspectives that must all come into the discussion, and to work flexibly with the contributions that each one makes to the continuing process of renewal on which we all depend. We step out of our individual mindset into a shared space of creative possibility. — Bill Sharpe (2013: 29)

Horizon 1 is based on practices that have worked for a long time and have a proven track record based on past experience. H1 thinking — dominated by the narrative of separation — has shaped most of the practices that seem vital to our continued existence. Our education systems, our systems of production and consumption, our health system, communication infrastructure, transport and housing infrastructures, all of these systems and the vital services they provide will have to be transformed during the transition towards regenerative cultures.

From the perspective of the present moment, H3 describes regenerative cultures capable of constant learning and transformation in adaptation to and anticipation of change. Yet, as we approach H3, it recedes, or better, it transforms in response to wider systemic change. By the time we reach the cultural maturity that we today describe in terms of the third horizon, this H3 will have turned into the new H1 and we will face new and unpredictable challenges that will require us to take a new H3 perspective. The pilgrimage towards a sustainable and regenerative future has an endless string of false summits. As we reach the top of the green summit (H3) of our horizons map, we stand on the red ground of our new H1. Looking ahead with future consciousness we see the new second and third horizons stretched out in front of us.

Since the process of cultural evolution and transformation is continuous, there is no arriving at and maintaining an H3 scenario forever. Moving towards the third horizon always entails acknowledging our ‘not knowing’ and therefore staying with an apprentice mindset — ready to learn from experience; humble enough to regard no solution as final; and open to acknowledging the valuable perspectives of all three horizons.

While aspects of today’s H1 are obsolete and among the root-causes of unsustainable practices, other aspects of H1 are also helping to provide vital services without which we would face almost immediate collapse. The transformation has to occur while these vital services continue to be provided. It is not possible for humanity to switch off the lights, leave the room, and start afresh in a different room that holds more promise. We only have one home planet. We have to find ways to transition from a status quo that is now deeply unsustainable to a new one. Sustainability and regenerative cultures are not end-points to be reached but continuous processes of collective learning. As we move towards the third horizon we are likely to be surprised by the emergence of new challenges. To respond wisely to these challenges the perspectives offered by all three horizons should inform our actions.

Three Horizon Thinking transforms the potential of the present moment by revealing each horizon as a different quality of the future in the present, reflecting how we act differently to maintain the familiar or pioneer the new. — Bill Sharpe (2013: 10)

In order to avoid the common mistake of ‘throwing out the baby with the bathwater’, it is important to see all that is valuable about H1 and understand the importance of the contributions it makes to co-creating regenerative cultures. Bill Sharpe compares the H1 perspective to the role of the manager responsible for keeping the lights on and the business operational without massive disruption to its basic functioning. The H2 perspective is that of the entrepreneur who sees the potential advantage of doing things differently, challenging the status quo in operational ways but often without questioning the cultural narrative that maintains the H1 culture. The perspective of the H3 visionary calls for profound transformation towards a better (more just, fair, equitable, thriving and sustainable) world.

In the transition context, H3 thinking is informed by the new cultural narrative of interbeing and the scientific evidence for our interdependence with the rest of life. As such, it is defining a new way of being and relating based on a fundamental shift in worldview acknowledging the valuable contributions of H1 and H2 perspectives and putting them into the context of wider eco-social transformation.

In charting a path to regenerative cultures that aims to avoid massive disruption and suffering, we need to value the bridge that certain types of H2 innovation offer. Most H1 systems might be in need of profound transformation, but still have to be valued as a basis from which innovation and transformation become possible while we avoid the often regressive rather than evolutionary effects of revolution and systemic collapse.

The H3 perspective itself is populated by many different visions of the future. In the context of this book I concentrate on those that value viability and regeneration, yet it is important to stay open for the lessons we can learn from all three horizons and the diversity of perspectives on the future they represent. Maintaining an open mind and learning from multiple perspectives can help us to develop ‘future consciousness’ as we chart our path into a future that will always be characterized by the emergence of novel conditions — some predetermined and inevitable, others unpredictable.

Diverse H3 visions and experiments are needed to take our collective conversation about the future to a level that is inclusive and participatory. We need to question our own cultural conditioning and the myopia caused by H1 education and cultural discourse. H1 managers can often be locked into a specific way of doing things and a specific mindset (the narrative of separation) — a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. H3 visionaries remind us to see future potential and possibilities beyond the rigid H1 mindset that resists change, in particular those kinds of change that invite cultural transformation.

The bridge between H1 and H3 is constructed by paying discerning attention to the space of innovation and the period of transition that is opened up by the second horizon. The H2 perspective sees opportunities in the shortcomings of H1 and aims to ground the visionary possibilities of the third horizon with some practical next steps. Many of them are likely to be ‘stepping stones’ or transitional innovations. Since H2 innovation takes place in an economic climate and within power structures dominated by H1, many of the proposed H2 innovations are ultimately captured to serve H1 goals. As the second horizon is about experimentation and entrepreneurship, many of its initiatives fail, offering opportunities for learning. Only a small percentage of innovations succeed in building an effective bridge between H1 and H3, enabling implementation of H3’s high visions in tangible, convincing and ‘positively infectious’ ways.

Three Horizons thinking allows us to acknowledge what is valuable in each of the three horizons’ distinct perspectives and ways of relating to the future. It helps us to see the opportunities and future potential of the present moment. It can help us to ask deeper questions as we engage in conversations informed by ‘future consciousness’ that turn rigid mindsets into valuable perspectives.

Transformation happens as the emergent result of everything going on in the world — there is always an emerging third horizon at every scale of life from the individual to the planet and beyond. Some things will be the result of conscious intent, others will surprise us for good or ill. The way we live now was once the third horizon, partly imagined and intended, largely unknown. Future consciousness will not bring the future under control, but allows us to develop our capacity for transformational response to its possibilities. — Bill Sharpe (2013: 15)

Three Horizons thinking offers a methodology and practice of seeing things from multiple perspectives and valuing the contribution that each perspective makes to the way we bring forth the world together. Simply holding a facilitated conversation using the Three Horizons framework in your local community group, business, organization or local council already has the potential for transformative cultural innovation within it.

[This is an excerpt of a subchapter from Designing Regenerative Cultures, published by Triarchy Press, 2016.]

Note: Bill Sharpe and I are co-teaching a 5 day course at Schumacher College in November 2017 (20th to 24th) entitled ‘Three Horizons: A pathways practice for sustainability and transformative innovation’.

INTERNET DE LAS HABILIDADES, UNA TECNOLOGÍA PARA HUMANIZAR

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EN EL MARCO DEL CONGRESO INTERNACIONAL DE ESPECTRO

5 Sep 2017 – 10:00 PM

María Alejandra Medina C. / @alejandra_mdn

www.elespectador.com/economia/internet-de-las-habilidades-una-tecnologia-para-humanizar-articulo-711746

Mischa Dohler es experto en telecomunicaciones. Habló con El Espectador sobre la internet de las habilidades, que permitirá que ocurran cosas como una cirugía a distancia. Reproducir el tacto y el olfato, entre los principales retos.

Mischa Dohler, orador en el Congreso Internacional de Espectro./ Cristian Garavito – El Espectador

Internet de las habilidades, una tecnología para humanizar

Mischa Dohler habla seis idiomas, es pianista y también el director del Centro de Investigación de Telecomunicaciones en el King’s College de Londres. Su descripción en Twitter es sencilla: “red shoes”, zapatos rojos. Al encontrarnos para la entrevista, lo comprobé. Llevaba unos tenis colorados, después de bajarse del escenario del Séptimo Congreso Internacional de Espectro, organizado por la Agencia Nacional del Espectro y que termina hoy en Bogotá.

Allí habló sobre uno de los temas que mejor conoce: la internet de las habilidades, que permitirá emplear las capacidades propias de forma remota con base en 5G, la próxima generación de conectividad, que consiste en optimizar la comunicación para que todo —celulares, carros, fábricas, casa, etc.— esté conectado. Es la puerta para que, por ejemplo, su mecánico pueda repararle el auto desde Bogotá si se quedó varado en cualquier carretera del país o para que un doctor en Estados Unidos pueda operar a un paciente que está en África.

En diálogo con este diario, Dohler habló de la importancia que tiene en esto la gestión del espectro radioeléctrico —la autopista invisible por donde viajan las telecomunicaciones—, así como de las similitudes o aplicaciones que artes como la interpretación del piano pueden tener en la automatización de las labores, mas no del trabajo. Para él, el ideal no es que los robots reemplacen a los humanos, sino que la tecnología mejore el oficio de cada quien.

¿Cómo ve a Colombia en materia de espectro y conectividad?

No es sólo Colombia la que se está planteando preguntas sobre este tema. La capacidad (de comunicación) inalámbrica se ha multiplicado un millón de veces durante los últimos 35 años. En gran parte ha sido por el uso que se le da al espectro. Sin duda seguiremos necesitándolo. Lo que pasa es que no sabemos para qué lo necesitaremos. Cuando empezamos a desarrollar la tecnología 3G, internet no estaba siquiera a nuestro alrededor. En el caso de 4G, ni siquiera había teléfonos inteligentes. Tuvimos la infraestructura y el espectro listos, hasta que algo transformador llegó y lo usó. Hay que tener más confianza en que con 5G —la próxima generación de telecomunicaciones— ocurrirá lo mismo. Y una opción es la internet de las habilidades. El llamado es a conseguir espectro hoy. Si no tiene el dinero, tómelo prestado. Si no, mañana se arrepentirá. Quien tenga el espectro será dominante en el mercado.

Cuando surgió 4G no había teléfonos inteligentes. Hoy, que se desarrolla 5G, ¿qué dispositivos es posible imaginar?

No sabemos. Tratamos de ir en cierta dirección. Pensamos en cosas de las que se ha hablado mucho: realidad virtual, por ejemplo. Pero quiero hacer algo más transformador, construir internet para democratizar las habilidades, que se puedan usar desde cualquier parte del mundo: pintar, tocar piano, reparar máquinas u operar. Nunca se ha hecho eso de forma digital. Se puede negociar o agendar por Facebook o Linkedin, pero para concretar el trabajo hay que ir, tomar un carro o un avión.

¿Cómo ve el desarrollo de cara a 5G por regiones? Con seguridad, África o América Latina no son iguales a Europa o Norteamérica.

A escala global, trabajamos con el cuerpo de estándares llamado 3GPP, que nos permite armar un sistema global. Pero es como un elefante o un iceberg. Si mira internet, uno no ve a Facebook y Microsoft sentados cada 10 años inventando una nueva internet. La razón es que (el desarrollo en internet) está atomizado, ahí todo el mundo puede innovar. En (tecnología) celular no tenemos eso. Tenemos un gran bloque y por eso toma tanto tiempo hacer las cosas. La ventaja es que se hace un sistema que funciona en todas partes. Llegué en la madrugada, a las 3, prendí el teléfono ¡y funciona! A nivel de espectro creo que los asuntos son diferentes según la región: Europa no es como Asia, en donde todo el tiempo quieren probar cosas nuevas, ver Netflix. En Europa, la demanda es menor y hay más espectro disponible. Entonces la pregunta es por qué alguien pagaría por espectro si la demanda es baja. La demanda en Norteamérica es alta y la cantidad de espectro es baja, así que para vender 5G, para el regulador, será muy fácil. Lo mismo pasa en Asia.

¿Cuáles son los principales retos para que todo el planeta “hable el mismo idioma” en telecomunicaciones? ¿Los estándares técnicos, la regulación…?

La armonización del espectro. Por eso la Conferencia Mundial de Radio de 2019 será muy importante, así como las relaciones transnacionales. Uno quiere asegurarse de que aterriza en algún lugar y se puede “sintonizar”. Asimismo, hay que hacer la tecnología lo suficientemente económica para que pueda ser aplicada en un nivel costo-eficiente.

¿Algún día el espectro será insuficiente?

Si en este edificio quiero poner una antena, esperando que llegue a toda Bogotá, entonces el espectro se vuelve un factor limitado muy rápido. Pero en teoría podría hacer celdas cada vez más pequeñas, con el mismo espectro. Esa ha sido la estrategia de los últimos años. Ahora, las preguntas sobre espectro no son sólo preguntas sobre espectro sino sobre infraestructura: ¿dónde se pone la estación base? ¿Cómo la conecta? Desplegar estaciones más pequeñas con menor alcance requiere negociación sobre el uso de los techos, por ejemplo, y el costo del espectro: es el juego que están jugando, por eso las subastas (de espectro). Eso también significa que el cuerpo a cargo del espectro tiene que hablar con las autoridades de infraestructura y discutir asuntos como la posibilidad de desregular para que los operadores tengan acceso al mobiliario urbano.

Si la internet de las habilidades está pensada para casi cualquier profesión, ¿cómo integrar o transformar el sistema educativo?

Apenas estamos dando pasos de bebés en esto. Es como haber diseñado internet hace 50 años: no se pensaba que debía ser parte del currículo años después. Pero sin duda transformará la forma como aprendemos. Por ejemplo, podemos enseñar a escala. En cirugía, por ejemplo. El problema con la cirugía robótica es que no se puede enseñar a los estudiantes a escala, sólo a un alumno a la vez. Después de semanas se hace el examen y si le fue mal perdió todo ese tiempo. Con la digitalización de las habilidades se pueden usar exoesqueletos, dispositivos mecánicos que se ponen en las manos y hacen los movimientos por usted mientras entrena el movimiento muscular. Así se toca piano. La razón por la que se necesita practicar ocho horas diarias es que la memoria del músculo (de la mano y el brazo) es muy corta, no la maneja el cerebro, sino la materia gris, que tiene menos conexiones neuronales. En cambio, las tablas de multiplicar se las aprende una vez y difícilmente se olvidan. Mi idea es poner al ser humano en el centro: no es sobre automatización, no quiero traer robots porque la gente confía en la gente. No estoy muy seguro de que confiara en que un robot lo opere, pero sí un cirujano. Apunto a que se automaticen los empleos al tiempo que se humaniza el trabajo.

Hablando de confianza, ¿el desarrollo de la seguridad digital va al mismo ritmo?

La seguridad es de los grandes temas de los que hablamos. Es menos del lado del cifrado, es más del uso. Cuando era ingeniero y trabajaba para Orange hicimos pruebas para “smart meters”, unos pequeños dispositivos que miden el consumo de energía y agua. Lo aplicamos en los hogares y como ingenieros no queríamos digitar largas contraseñas. Dejamos la seguridad en cero, pero al irnos se nos olvidó dejarla arriba. Fue un error humano. Los ataques de seguridad de los últimos años han sido en su mayoría por error humano, por no usar el protocolo correcto. Hay una preocupación en el panorama y es la computación cuántica, porque puede romper el cifrado. Todo lo hace más rápido que los computadores ordinarios. En efecto, uno no querría que la gente equivocada tenga acceso a tu cirugía de ojos. Estamos tratando de desarrollar un canal end-to-end seguro, para que nadie lo pueda hackear, y la solución es la cuántica, canales de seguridad cuántica.

¿Sería entonces un problema interminable?

Eso parece. No prometo 100 % de seguridad. No importa cuánto te esfuerces, siempre habrá fisuras. Microsoft es un buen ejemplo. Es un sistema complejo, trata de poner parches de seguridad, pero siempre hay alguna pequeña cosa que entra. Cuando construyamos un lenguaje que sea matemáticamente seguro podremos tener ese tipo de seguridad, pero por ahora toca tomar el riesgo.

Para los médicos, el olor y el tacto son importantes para un diagnóstico. ¿No ve un problema práctico en ese sentido?

Dentistas de Londres me pusieron el mismo reto. Hicimos retroalimentación táctil, la habilidad de sentir remotamente. La cuestión es que la gente más cualificada por lo general vive en zonas urbanas. En zonas rurales es donde más abandono hay. Usaríamos la internet de las habilidades para ejercer en áreas realmente con necesidades, y no quiere decir que allí no vaya a haber nadie: habrá enfermeras, personal, pero no necesariamente quien tiene la más alta cualificación.

¿Y el olfato?

Hay trabajos en internet del olfato de colegas en Liverpool. Es una unión de ingenieros y químicos que están construyendo los sentidos midiendo ciertos componentes del olor que se transmiten a través de válvulas que al otro lado reproducen el olor.

Club de Amsterdam Journal

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.Club of Amsterdam Journal, September 2017, Issue 197
Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.
A mobile version of the Club of Amsterdam Journal can be downloaded here  portable & printable version

Once upon a time there was money. It has lubricated our civilisations from the earliest days. But how many people really understand it? And if people don’t understand money, how can they understand the implications of banks being increasingly in control of, and knowledgeable about, our transactions? Then along come cryptocurrencies, which can take banks out of the equation. A fascinating evolution, or is it a battle?- Paul Holister
 The Future Now Show: Cryptocurrencies with Hardy F Schloer 
ULTRANOW briefings by Lise Voldeng are advisory bullets traversing every sector of civilization – providing forecasting, analysis and advisory insights on how to prosper integrously.

Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman

 Club of Amsterdam Journal, September 2017, Issue 197

www.clubofamsterdam.com/press.asp?contentid=978

The EU Global Strategy – Year 1
What humans will look like in 1,000 years
The Future Now Show: Cryptocurrencies with Hardy F Schloer
The Pregnancy Panopticon
News about the Future:
Future of an Ageing Population /
New horizons: Future scenarios for research & innovation policies in Europe – Study
How Will Nanotechnology Change the World
Recommended Book:
Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Trump’s Afghan Military Solution Will Fail with James Dorsey
ULTRANOW Briefings with Lise Voldeng:
TRUE POWER
Futurist Portrait: Glen Hiemstra

 mobile & printable version

The EU Global Strategy – Year 1

Personal Message by Federica Mogherin High Representative of the Union for foreign and security policy / Vice-President of the European Commission…… read full article


What humans will look like in 1,000 years

by Tech Insider…… watch the video


The Future Now Show: Cryptocurrencies with Hardy F Schloer

Once upon a time there was money. It has lubricated our civilisations from the earliest days. But how many people really understand it? And if people don’t understand money, how can they understand the implications of banks being increasingly in control of, and knowledgeable about, our transactions? Then along come cryptocurrencies, which can take banks out of the equation. A fascinating evolution, or is it a battle?. – Paul Holister …… watch the video


The Pregnancy Panopticon

by Cooper Quintin, Staff Technologist, Electronic Frontier Foundation
Women’s health is big business. There are a staggering number of applications for Android and iOS which claim to…… read full article


News about the Future:
Future of an Ageing Population /
New horizons: Future scenarios for research & innovation policies in Europe – Study

 

…… read full article


How Will Nanotechnology Change the World

by National Geographic …… watch the video


Recommended Book:
Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

by Max Tegmark Knopf
How will Artificial Intelligence affect crime, war, justice, jobs, society and our very sense of being human? The rise of AI has the potential to ……read full article


Trump’s Afghan Military Solution Will Fail with James Dorsey

James Dorsey tells Paul Jay, The Real News Network, that Trump’s plan is to force the Taliban to negotiate, but there is no reason for them to …… watch video


ULTRANOW Briefings with Lise Voldeng:
TRUE POWER

……listen to the brief


Futurist Portrait: Glen Hiemstra

Glen Hiemstra is the founder and owner of Futurist.com. Glen is dedicated to disseminating information about the future to…… read full article

Contact
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Transhumanismo: el engaño de la trascendencia tecnológica – Richard Jones

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Richard Jones on Against Transhumanism: the Delusion of Technological Transcendence

Audio Player

 We often tend to ignore people and books that we have strong disagreement with. And yet, often times it is precisely those interactions that are very productive in helping us re-evaluate our own positions and see things from a fresh perspective. I find that, more often than not, confronting rather than ignoring a good argument, is not only a more honest approach but can also be quite rewarding in a variety of ways. And my interview with Prof. Richard Jones is a perfect example of that. So, while I may disagree with him on his general verdict on transhumanism, I found an impressive amount of specific things we agree on. And, more importantly, I managed to learn a thing or two about nanotechnology and the human brain.

During our 75 min discussion with Prof. Richard Jones we cover a variety of interesting topics such as: his general work in nanotechnology, his book and blog on the topic; whether technological progress is accelerating or not; transhumanismRay Kurzweil and technological determinism; physics, Platonism and Frank J. Tipler‘s claim that “the singularity is inevitable”; the strange ideological routes of transhumanism; Eric Drexler’s vision of nanotechnology as reducing the material world to software; the over-representation of physicists on both sides of the transhumanism and AI debate; mind uploading and the importance of molecules as the most fundamental units of biological processing; Aubrey de Grey‘s quest for indefinite life extension; the importance of ethics and politics…

As always you can listen to or download the audio file above or scroll down and watch the video interview in full. To show your support you can write a review on iTunes or make a donation.

Who is Richard Jones?

Richard JonesRichard Jones is Professor of Physics and Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Research and Innovation at the University of Sheffield. His first degree and PhD in Physics both come from Cambridge University, and following postdoctoral work at Cornell University, U.S.A., he was a lecturer at the University of Cambridge’s Cavendish Laboratory.  In 1998 he moved to the University of Sheffield.  He is an experimental physicist who specialises in elucidating the nanoscale structure and properties of polymers and biological macromolecules at interfaces.

He is the author of more than 190 research papers, and three books, including Soft Machines: nanotechnology and life, published by Oxford University Press in 2004.  He was the Senior Strategic Advisor for Nanotechnology for the UK’s Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council from 2007 to 2009, and is currently a member of EPSRC Council.  In 2006 he was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society, and in 2009 he won the Tabor Medal of the UK’s Institute of Physics for his contributions to nanoscience.

His blog – at www.softmachines.org – has, since 2004, discussed topics related to nanotechnology in all its varieties, together with other issues in science and innovation policy.  He has recently released the free e-book Against transhumanism: the delusion of technological transcendence.

China inaugura rápido servicio de tren Shanghai-Beijing

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China to rev up bullet train revolution with world’s fastest service on Shanghai-Beijing line

New generation of trains named after Xi’s favoured slogan will travel at speeds of 350km/h when they go into service next month

PUBLISHED : Monday, 21 August, 2017, 12:04am

Sarah Zheng
Sarah Zheng      /             /      
The high-speed railway connecting Hefei and Fuzhou in eastern China covers more than 800km in about four hours. Photo: Xinhua

China will soon start official operation of the world’s fastest train service, knocking an hour off the 1,318km journey between Beijing and Shanghai.

The Beijing-Shanghai line will start on September 21, while operation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area starts on Monday, state media CGTN reported.

At present, the fastest trains in China, which have their top speed capped at 300km/h, are named Hexie, or Harmony, a key slogan for Xi’s predecessor Hu Jintao.

China had briefly tried a maximum speed of 350km/h, but a deadly train crash in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province, in 2011 forced the railway authority to reduce the upper limit.

However, the desire to up the speed on the world’s most extensive high-speed network remained strong as the country tried to stay ahead of Japan, Germany and France in a technological race.

China’s bullet trains and railways are now a key product for Beijing to sell to other countries, especially under the “Belt and Road Initiative”.

The Beijing-Shanghai route is one of the most used lines, with around 600 million passengers using the service a year since it opened in 2011, according to China Railway, the state-owned operator.

The line is also one of the most profitable in China. China Railway has not released financial data for specific lines, but a bond issuance prospectus last year said the corporate entity running the line made a profit of 6.6 billion yuan in 2015, or about US$1 billion.

According to the current train schedule, the fastest bullet train running between the cities takes four hours and 55 minutes, and most bullet trains take around 5½ hours. A one-way ticket costs 553 yuan (US$83) for a regular seat and 933 yuan for a first-class seat.

It is not known whether China Railway will raise ticket prices after the speed is increased.

Authorities tested the 350 km/h services on some parts of the line last month and the results convinced officials they would be able to run at higher speeds along the whole line.

According to Xinhua, the trains are capable of going even faster and have a maximum speed of 400km/h.

Zhao Jian, a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University and a leading researcher on the country’s high-speed railway network, told the South China Morning Post that the higher speeds could increase the risk of collisions, so to avoid accidents the railway operator would have to reduce the number of trains on the line.

China’s bullet trains have developed rapidly over the past decade since the opening of a service between Beijing and Tianjin in 2008.

By last year there was about 22,000km of high-speed line, or about two-thirds of the world’s total.

The central government now plans to boost that to 30,000km by 2020.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as:

 

¿Por qué los negocios necesitan un código de ética para el uso de la tecnología?

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Why businesses need a code of ethics for use of technology

The use of powerful technologies is increasing in firms of every size as prices falls and access becomes easier – particularly using online Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions. These can make high functionality software applications and services available to even the smallest of firms for a relatively affordable monthly fee – thus enabling them to compete with larger and better resourced players. Many are exploiting the transformative potential of technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), cloud storage, big data, the internet of things (IoT), wearable devices, and blockchain. The goals are typically to enable new offerings, enhance service, maximise efficiency, cut costs, and improve marketing and sales effectiveness.

These technologies raise new ethical questions; notions of privacy and ownership are being challenged; questions arise over who owns customer data and how it can be used; what licence do we have to aggregate, analyse and interpret information gleaned from hundreds, thousands or millions of customer interactions? Informed consent processes are becoming necessary; and ideas on what constitutes harm and fair use are being called into question. These challenges are arising across industry value chains, so no one is surprised to see businesses develop digital codes to ensure employees, clients and partners know they are operating within acceptable ethical standards. Those in organisational and functional leadership roles are in key positions to instigate and steer the ethical discourse to enable each company to form its code.

Technological Upheaval

There are many potential ethical questions being raised around new technologies. The ubiquity of the IoT may raise concerns about the extent to which employee behaviour can be monitored; is the amount of food staff consume something the company could or should monitor? Should company’s aggregate and analyse data from employees’ wearable health trackers – is such wellness monitoring beneficial or invasive? Brain scanning technology is already in place to monitor employee concentration, is this appropriate or invasive? Is tracking health and mental activity a natural extension of monitoring productivity? Powerful technologies are no longer simply mechanical tools, they are increasingly redefining the nature and scope of employees’ work and their relationship with the employer. Hence it is critical for those in leadership to set the tone around the use of technology and data. What is commercially sensible may seem ethically questionable – challenging the boundaries of privacy and sensitivity. Just because we can, does it mean we should?

Public Dialogue

With an accelerating pace of digital disruption across society, critical ethical questions are moving up the public agenda faster. For example, 2016 has seen intense public debate around fair presentation of information on social media, the rise of the ‘post truth’ society and the employment implications of AI. Corporations cannot sit on the sidelines in these discussions. In some senses, there is no template to follow; there is no gold standard or global consensus over what is considered ethical. Businesses must engage in continual public and professional dialogue to determine what is permissible, what is acceptable and what would be best for shareholders, employees and customers.

Regular discourse highlights emerging issues and potential solutions. For example, if unbridled monitoring of employees’ health trackers is generally considered invasive, informed consent systems can be adopted with clear options defined for employees. Choices can be agreed with staff on the extent of monitoring, with clearly defined employee opt out clauses.

As business leaders, we must stay abreast of technological progress and engage with the questions being raised by the technologies, other organisations’ choices and societal responses. This engagement can help inform choice – providing alternative scenarios and ideas that drive our own ethical guidelines.

Compliance and Consistency

A clear internal view of what is considered ethically permissible is vital for any organisation. Once ethical frameworks have been established, these guiding principles must become cornerstones of strategic policy with regular monitoring of adherence. To be effective, the guiding principles must underpin subsequent actions consistently. Conformance with digital ethics cannot be a grey area or easily bypassed because of commercial considerations. Alongside driving home the message in regular communications and public statements, leaders need to demonstrate case examples of clear choices that have been made or rejected because of digital ethics. Corrective measures must be clear and applied consistently when these guidelines are bypassed.

Leading the Way

The necessity to form codes of digital ethics will increase, and the next 3-5 years will see widespread adoption – with some firms losing out where they don’t meet customers’ ethical expectations. In a world where the public discourse is almost impossible to control, CEOs must lead the way in ensuring their firms adopt and hold themselves to the highest standards of digital ethical behaviour and respond accordingly when gaps in the framework emerge. As the world becomes increasingly digital, and it becomes harder to distinguish our offerings from the competitors, who we are being and what we stand for will be become critical differentiators.

24 predicciones para el año 3000

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24 Predictions for the Year 3000 by David Pearce

24 Predictions for the Year 3000 by David Pearce

In response to the Quora question Looking 1000 years into the future and assuming the human race is doing well, what will society be like?David Pearce wrote:

The history of futurology to date makes sobering reading. Prophecies tend to reveal more about the emotional and intellectual limitations of the author than the future. […]
But here goes…

Year 3000

1) Superhuman bliss.

Mastery of our reward circuitry promises a future of superhuman bliss – gradients of genetically engineered well-being orders of magnitude richer than today’s “peak experiences”.
Superhappiness?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3274778/

2) Eternal youth.

More strictly, indefinitely extended youth and effectively unlimited lifespans. Transhumans, humans and their nonhuman animal companions don’t grow old and perish. Automated off-world backups allow restoration and “respawning” in case of catastrophic accidents. “Aging” exists only in the medical archives.
SENS Research Foundation – Wikipedia

3) Full-spectrum superintelligences.

A flourishing ecology of sentient nonbiological quantum computers, hyperintelligent digital zombies and full-spectrum transhuman “cyborgs” has radiated across the Solar System. Neurochipping makes superintelligence all-pervasive. The universe seems inherently friendly: ubiquitous AI underpins the illusion that reality conspires to help us.
Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies – Wikipedia
Artificial Intelligence @ MIRI
Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence
Supersentience

4) Immersive VR.

“Magic” rules. “Augmented reality” of earlier centuries has been largely superseded by hyperreal virtual worlds with laws, dimensions, avatars and narrative structures wildly different from ancestral consensus reality. Selection pressure in the basement makes complete escape into virtual paradises infeasible. For the most part, infrastructure maintenance in basement reality has been delegated to zombie AI.
Augmented reality – Wikipedia
Virtual reality – Wikipedia

5) Transhuman psychedelia / novel state spaces of consciousness.

Analogues of cognition, volition and emotion as conceived by humans have been selectively retained, though with a richer phenomenology than our thin logico-linguistic thought. Other fundamental categories of mind have been discovered via genetic tinkering and pharmacological experiment. Such novel faculties are intelligently harnessed in the transhuman CNS. However, the ordinary waking consciousness of Darwinian life has been replaced by state-spaces of mind physiologically inconceivable to Homo sapiens. Gene-editing tools have opened up modes of consciousness that make the weirdest human DMT trip akin to watching paint dry. These disparate states-spaces of consciousness do share one property: they are generically blissful. “Bad trips” as undergone by human psychonauts are physically impossible because in the year 3000 the molecular signature of experience below “hedonic zero” is missing.
ShulginResearch.org
Qualia Computing

6) Supersentience / ultra-high intensity experience.

The intensity of everyday experience surpasses today’s human imagination. Size doesn’t matter to digital data-processing, but bigger brains with reprogrammed, net-enabled neurons and richer synaptic connectivity can exceed the maximum sentience of small, simple, solipsistic mind-brains shackled by the constraints of the human birth-canal. The theoretical upper limits to phenomenally bound mega-minds, and the ultimate intensity of experience, remain unclear. Intuitively, humans have a dimmer-switch model of consciousness – with e.g. ants and worms subsisting with minimal consciousness and humans at the pinnacle of the Great Chain of Being. Yet Darwinian humans may resemble sleepwalkers compared to our fourth-millennium successors. Today we say we’re “awake”, but mankind doesn’t understand what “posthuman intensity of experience” really means.
What earthly animal comes closest to human levels of sentience?

7) Reversible mind-melding.

Early in the twenty-first century, perhaps the only people who know what it’s like even partially to share a mind are the conjoined Hogan sisters. Tatiana and Krista Hogan share a thalamic bridge. Even mirror-touch synaesthetes can’t literally experience the pains and pleasures of other sentient beings. But in the year 3000, cross-species mind-melding technologies – for instance, sophisticated analogues of reversible thalamic bridges – and digital analogs of telepathy have led to a revolution in both ethics and decision-theoretic rationality.
Could Conjoined Twins Share a Mind?
Mirror-touch synesthesia – Wikipedia
Ecstasy : Utopian Pharmacology

8) The Anti-Speciesist Revolution / worldwide veganism/invitrotarianism.

Factory-farms, slaughterhouses and other Darwinian crimes against sentience have passed into the dustbin of history. Omnipresent AI cares for the vulnerable via “high-tech Jainism”. The Anti-Speciesist Revolution has made arbitrary prejudice against other sentient beings on grounds of species membership as perversely unthinkable as discrimination on grounds of ethnic group. Sentience is valued more than sapience, the prerogative of classical digital zombies (“robots”).
What is High-tech Jainism?
The Antispeciesist Revolution
‘Speciesism: Why It Is Wrong and the Implications of Rejecting It’

9) Programmable biospheres.

Sentient beings help rather than harm each other. The successors of today’s primitive CRISPR genome-editing and synthetic gene drive technologies have reworked the global ecosystem. Darwinian life was nasty, brutish and short. Extreme violence and useless suffering were endemic. In the year 3000, fertility regulation via cross-species immunocontraception has replaced predation, starvation and disease to regulate ecologically sustainable population sizes in utopian “wildlife parks”. The free-living descendants of “charismatic mega-fauna” graze happily with neo-dinosaurs, self-replicating nanobots, and newly minted exotica in surreal garden of edens. Every cubic metre of the biosphere is accessible to benign supervision – “nanny AI” for humble minds who haven’t been neurochipped for superintelligence. Other idyllic biospheres in the Solar System have been programmed from scratch.
CRISPR – Wikipedia
Genetically designing a happy biosphere
Our Biotech Future

10) The formalism of the TOE is known.
(details omitteddoes Quora support LaTeX?)

Dirac recognised the superposition principle as the fundamental principle of quantum mechanics. Wavefunction monists believe the superposition principle holds the key to reality itself. However – barring the epoch-making discovery of a cosmic Rosetta stone – the implications of some of the more interesting solutions of the master equation for subjective experience are still unknown.
Theory of everything – Wikipedia
M-theory – Wikipedia
Why does the universe exist? Why is there something rather than nothing?
Amazon.com: The Wave Function: Essays on the Metaphysics of Quantum Mechanics (9780199790548): Alyssa Ney, David Z Albert: Books

11) The Hard Problem of consciousness is solved.

The Hard Problem of consciousness was long reckoned insoluble. The Standard Model in physics from which (almost) all else springs was a bit of a mess but stunningly empirically successful at sub-Planckian energy regimes. How could physicalism and the ontological unity of science be reconciled with the existence, classically impossible binding, causal-functional efficacy and diverse palette of phenomenal experience? Mankind’s best theory of the world was inconsistent with one’s own existence, a significant shortcoming. However, all classical- and quantum-mind conjectures with predictive power had been empirically falsified by 3000 – with one exception.
Physicalism – Wikipedia
Quantum Darwinism – Wikipedia
Consciousness (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
Hard problem of consciousness – Wikipedia
Integrated information theory – Wikipedia
Principia Qualia
Dualism – Wikipedia
New mysterianism – Wikipedia
Quantum mind – Wikipedia

[Which theory is most promising? As with the TOE, you’ll forgive me for skipping the details. In any case, my ideas are probably too idiosyncratic to be of wider interest, but for anyone curious: What is the Quantum Mind?]

12) The Meaning of Life resolved.

Everyday life is charged with a profound sense of meaning and significance. Everyone feels valuable and valued. Contrast the way twenty-first century depressives typically found life empty, absurd or meaningless; and how even “healthy” normals were sometimes racked by existential angst. Or conversely, compare how people with bipolar disorder experienced megalomania and messianic delusions when uncontrollably manic. Hyperthymic civilization in the year 3000 records no such pathologies of mind or deficits in meaning. Genetically preprogrammed gradients of invincible bliss ensure that all sentient beings find life self-intimatingly valuable. Transhumans love themselves, love life, and love each other.
https://www.transhumanism.com/

13) Beautiful new emotions.

Nasty human emotions have been retired – with or without the recruitment of functional analogs to play their former computational role. Novel emotions have been biologically synthesised and their “raw feels” encephalised and integrated into the CNS. All emotion is beautiful. The pleasure axis has replaced the pleasure-pain axis as the engine of civilised life.
An information-theoretic perspective on life in Heaven

14) Effectively unlimited material abundance / molecular nanotechnology.

Status goods long persisted in basement reality, as did relics of the cash nexus on the blockchain. Yet in a world where both computational resources and the substrates of pure bliss aren’t rationed, such ugly evolutionary hangovers first withered, then died.
http://metamodern.com/about-the-author/
Blockchain – Wikipedia

15) Posthuman aesthetics / superhuman beauty.

The molecular signatures of aesthetic experience have been identified, purified and overexpressed. Life is saturated with superhuman beauty. What passed for “Great Art” in the Darwinian era is no more impressive than year 2000 humans might judge, say, a child’s painting by numbers or Paleolithic daubings and early caveporn. Nonetheless, critical discernment is retained. Transhumans are blissful but not “blissed out” – or not all of them at any rate.
Art – Wikipedia
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2009/05/earliest-pornography

16) Gender transformation.

Like gills or a tail, “gender” in the human sense is a thing of the past. We might call some transhuman minds hyper-masculine (the “ultrahigh AQ” hyper-systematisers), others hyperfeminine (“ultralow AQ” hyper-empathisers), but transhuman cognitive styles transcend such crude dichotomies, and can be shifted almost at will via embedded AI. Many transhumans are asexual, others pan-sexual, a few hypersexual, others just sexually inquisitive. “The degree and kind of a man’s sexuality reach up into the ultimate pinnacle of his spirit”, said Nietzsche – which leads to (17).

Object Sexuality – Wikipedia
Empathizing & Systematizing Theory – Wikipedia
https://www.livescience.com/2094-homosexuality-turned-fruit-flies.html
https://www.wired.com/2001/12/aqtest/

17) Physical superhealth.

In 3000, everyone feels physically and psychologically “better than well”. Darwinian pathologies of the flesh such as fatigue, the “leaden paralysis” of chronic depressives, and bodily malaise of any kind are inconceivable. The (comparatively) benign “low pain” alleles of the SCN9A gene that replaced their nastier ancestral cousins have been superseded by AI-based nociception with optional manual overrides. Multi-sensory bodily “superpowers” are the norm. Everyone loves their body-images in virtual and basement reality alike. Morphological freedom is effectively unbounded. Awesome robolovers, nights of superhuman sensual passion, 48-hour whole-body orgasms, and sexual practices that might raise eyebrows among prudish Darwinians have multiplied. Yet life isn’t a perpetual orgy. Academic subcultures pursue analogues of Mill’s “higher pleasures”. Paradise engineering has become a rigorous discipline. That said, a lot of transhumans are hedonists who essentially want to have superhuman fun. And why not?
https://www.wired.com/2017/04/the-cure-for-pain/
http://io9.gizmodo.com/5946914/should-we-eliminate-the-human-ability-to-feel-pain
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140321-orgasms-at-the-push-of-a-button

18) World government.

Routine policy decisions in basement reality have been offloaded to ultra-intelligent zombie AI. The quasi-psychopathic relationships of Darwinian life – not least the zero-sum primate status-games of the African savannah – are ancient history. Some conflict-resolution procedures previously off-loaded to AI have been superseded by diplomatic “mind-melds”. In the words of Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, “If we could read the secret history of our enemies, we should find in each man’s life sorrow and suffering enough to disarm all hostility.” Our descendants have windows into each other’s souls, so to speak.

19) Historical amnesia.

The world’s last experience below “hedonic zero” marked a major evolutionary transition in the evolutionary development of life. In 3000, the nature of sub-zero states below Sidgwick’s “natural watershed” isn’t understood except by analogy: some kind of phase transition in consciousness below life’s lowest hedonic floor – a hedonic floor that is being genetically ratcheted upwards as life becomes ever more wonderful. Transhumans are hyper-empathetic. They get off on each other’s joys. Yet paradoxically, transhuman mental superhealth depends on biological immunity to true comprehension of the nasty stuff elsewhere in the universal wavefunction that even mature superintelligence is impotent to change. Maybe the nature of e.g. Darwinian life, and the minds of malaise-ridden primitives in inaccessible Everett branches, doesn’t seem any more interesting than we find books on the Dark Ages. Negative utilitarianism, if it were conceivable, might be viewed as a depressive psychosis. “Life is suffering”, said Gautama Buddha, but fourth millennials feel in the roots of their being that Life is bliss.
Invincible ignorance? Perhaps.
Negative Utilitarianism – Wikipedia

20) Super-spirituality.

A tough one to predict. But neuroscience can soon identify the molecular signatures of spiritual experience, refine them, and massively amplify their molecular substrates. Perhaps some fourth millennials enjoy lifelong spiritual ecstasies beyond the mystical epiphanies of temporal-lobe epileptics. Secular rationalists don’t know what we’re missing.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22129531-000-ecstatic-epilepsy-how-seizures-can-be-bliss/

21) The Reproductive Revolution.
Reproduction is uncommon in a post-aging society. Most transhumans originate as extra-uterine “designer babies”. The reckless genetic experimentation of sexual reproduction had long seemed irresponsible. Old habits still died hard. By year 3000, the genetic crapshoot of Darwinian life has finally been replaced by precision-engineered sentience. Early critics of “eugenics” and a “Brave New World” have discovered by experience that a “triple S” civilisation of superhappiness, superlongevity and superintelligence isn’t as bad as they supposed.
https://www.reproductive-revolution.com/
https://www.huxley.net/

22) Globish (“English Plus”).

Automated real-time translation has been superseded by a common tongue – Globish – spoken, written or “telepathically” communicated. Partial translation manuals for mutually alien state-spaces of consciousness exist, but – as twentieth century Kuhnians would have put it – such state-spaces tend to be incommensurable and their concepts state-specific. Compare how poorly lucid dreamers can communicate with “awake” humans. Many Darwinian terms and concepts are effectively obsolete. In their place, active transhumanist vocabularies of millions of words are common. “Basic Globish” is used for communication with humble minds, i.e. human and nonhuman animals who haven’t been fully uplifted.
Incommensurability – SEoP
Uplift (science_fiction) – Wikipedia

23) Plans for Galactic colonization.

Terraforming and 3D-bioprinting of post-Darwinian life on nearby solar systems is proceeding apace. Vacant ecological niches tend to get filled. In earlier centuries, a synthesis of cryonics, crude reward pathway enhancements and immersive VR software, combined with revolutionary breakthroughs in rocket propulsion, led to the launch of primitive manned starships. Several are still starbound. Some transhuman utilitarian ethicists and policy-makers favour creating a utilitronium shockwave beyond the pale of civilisation to convert matter and energy into pure pleasure. Year 3000 bioconservatives focus on promoting life animated by gradients of superintelligent bliss. Yet no one objects to pure “hedonium” replacing unprogrammed matter.
Interstellar Travel – Wikipedia
Utilitarianism – Wikipedia

24) The momentous “unknown unknown”.

If you read a text and the author’s last words are “and then I woke up”, everything you’ve read must be interpreted in a new light – semantic holism with a vengeance. By the year 3000, some earth-shattering revelation may have changed everything – some fundamental background assumption of earlier centuries has been overturned that might not have been explicitly represented in our conceptual scheme. If it exists, then I’ve no inkling what this “unknown unknown” might be, unless it lies hidden in the untapped subjective properties of matter and energy. Christian readers might interject “The Second Coming”. Learning the Simulation Hypothesis were true would be a secular example of such a revelation. Some believers in an AI “Intelligence Explosion” speak delphically of “The Singularity”. Whatever – Shakespeare made the point more poetically, “There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy”.

As it stands, yes, (24) is almost vacuous. Yet compare how the philosophers of classical antiquity who came closest to recognising their predicament weren’t intellectual titans like Plato or Aristotle, but instead the radical sceptics. The sceptics guessed they were ignorant in ways that transcended the capacity of their conceptual scheme to articulate. By the lights of the fourth millennium, what I’m writing, and what you’re reading, may be stultified by something that humans don’t know and can’t express.
Ancient Skepticism – SEoP

**********************************************************************

OK, twenty-four predictions! Successful prophets tend to locate salvation or doom within the credible lifetime of their intended audience. The questioner asks about life in the year 3000 rather than, say, a Kurzweilian 2045. In my view, everyone reading this text will grow old and die before the predictions of this answer are realised or confounded – with one possible complication.

Opt-out cryonics and opt-in cryothanasia are feasible long before the conquest of aging. Visiting grandpa in the cryonics facility can turn death into an event in life. I’m not convinced that posthuman superintelligence will reckon that Darwinian malware should be revived in any shape or form. Yet if you want to wake up one morning in posthuman paradise – and I do see the appeal – then options exist:
http://www.alcor.org/

********************************************************************
p.s. I’m curious about the credence (if any) the reader would assign to the scenarios listed here.

Entrevista alertando que estamos en la era de la tecnología inteligente

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ECONOMÍA

“Ya estamos en la era de la tecnología inteligente”

Fernando Ortega Alertó que los Estados deben invertir más en tecnología y educación. 

Fernando Ortega es uno de los mayores especialistas en economías del futuro de América Latina. Asegura que ya estamos en la Cuarta Revolución Industrial y en la Era de la Tecnología Inteligente. Llegó a Bolivia invitado por la Universidad Privada Franz Tamayo (Unifranz) en el marco del foro internacional sobre Jóvenes y Empleo que organizó las Naciones Unidas y el programa Siembra Juventud. Destacó que los países de la región están rezagados en sus sistemas educativos, científicos y tecnológicos para enganchar con una sociedad de cambios acelerados que demandan nuevas capacidades y ofertas de consumo.

 ¿Cuáles son las claves de la nueva economía global?
Estamos viviendo la cuarta revolución industrial. Es lo que, técnicamente, llamamos la Era de la Tecnología Consciente. El punto de inflexión se dio en 2011, dado que en ese año ocurrieron dos hechos fundamentales para esta transformación. Uno popular y otro técnico. El primero ocurrió durante el programa de concurso sobre cultura general que se dio en la televisión estadounidense llamado Jeopardy! Todas las semanas acuden cientos de personas a tratar de responder preguntas sobre arte, ciencia, política, geografía, historia, deportes, cine y música. Aquel año, los ejecutivos de IBM propusieron a los productores del programa hacer una competencia Hombre vs. Máquina. Enfrentaron, entonces, la supercomputadora Watson sin conexión a internet; es decir, disco duro contra el cerebro de los dos humanos más ganadores del concurso. Aceptaron la propuesta. Un millón de dólares era el premio. ¿Quién cree que ganó? No ganaron los genios, sino la máquina. Era la primera vez que una máquina superaba al hombre en un concurso abierto. Ya había ocurrido en 1998 cuando otra supercomputadora, la Deep Blue, también de IBM, había superado a Gary Kaspárov, campeón mundial de ajedrez. Pero se trataba de un juego con reglas simples y que podía ser fácilmente programable. En este caso se trataba de un concurso de conocimiento con preguntas con doble sentido, con adivinanzas. Entonces, la máquina fue capaz de discriminar todas estas posibilidades, tener respuestas coherentes, y entender el lenguaje natural, igual que los humanos.

La tecnología comienza a superar al ser humano… 
El segundo hecho fundamental es el surgimiento, en 2011, de la primera generación de computadoras cuánticas comerciales. Este es el nuevo paradigma de la computación. Ya no se trabaja con el sistema binario, 0-1, sino por vectores. Es decir, pueden tener un valor 0-1, o cualquier valor, dado que es un vector, con lo cual se multiplican miles de veces las capacidades de procesamiento de datos. Estamos frente a una nueva revolución tecnológica. En 2013 se lanzó la segunda generación de computadoras cuánticas y recientemente la cuarta generación de este tipo de equipos. Esto implica un cambio muy drástico con respecto a lo que hoy tenemos por conocido. La Era de la Información ya murió, duró desde la primera PC en 1974 hasta 2011; es decir, unos 30 años.

¿Qué consecuencias tiene esta realidad?
La revolución de la tecnología consciente plantea un cambio total de los paradigmas. El mundo, como lo conocemos ahora, ya no será el mismo. Pensar que la inteligencia artificial nunca va a superar la inteligencia humana es falso. De aquí a 2030 se espera que ocurra la “singularidad tecnológica”; es decir, el momento en que la inteligencia artificial equipara las capacidades de la inteligencia humana. Las grandes corporaciones incorporarán en su directorio a un dispositivo de inteligencia artificial. Ese será el hito de este cambio trascendental. Votará con su propio criterio y dirá que esto debería hacerse. Ya verán los humanos si lo siguen o no lo siguen. Antes fue el test de Turing, ahora vamos más allá de eso.

Esto conllevará a que muchos oficios serán desplazados por las máquinas…
Hasta este momento, todas las revoluciones anteriores, la Revolución del Vapor, la Electricidad y de la Informática, lo que hicieron fue generar más empleo. Más crecimiento, más empleo. Ahora, será al revés. Más crecimiento, menos empleo. Porque lo que se va a buscar es productividad y, en ese sentido, las máquinas ganan a los seres humanos. La máquina no tiene vacaciones, no tiene ocho horas de restricción a su trabajo, no sale con licencias de embarazo ni de enfermedad, ni tiene beneficios sociales, no tiene que ir a visitar al colegio el Día del Padre o de la Madre. Las máquinas trabajan 24 horas, 365 días al año y, entonces, aumentarán la productividad de forma sideral.

¿Y a qué nos vamos a dedicar los seres humanos?
Allí viene el siguiente paradigma. La principal fuente de ingresos de las familias hoy es el empleo, es el trabajo. Por eso tenemos el ‘trabajo digno’ y los conceptos laborales que manejan la OIT y las organizaciones no gubernamentales. Hagamos un poco de teoría económica. ¿Cuál es la base del sistema capitalista? El consumo. Si hay consumo, hay oferta. Si hay oferta, tenemos producción y las empresas. Pero para que haya consumo necesitamos un ingreso. La principal fuente de ingreso hasta este momento ha sido el empleo. En el futuro, por la sustitución del empleo por las máquinas, la crisis de empleo va a ser terrible. Entonces surge el nuevo paradigma: UBI (Universal Basic Income). El Ingreso Básico Universal. Todo ciudadano al cumplir los 18 años va a recibir un sueldo del Estado sin trabajar. Eso le debería cubrir los gastos básicos. Si quiere ganar más, deberá trabajar. Pero que se la busque a través del autoempleo o que desarrolle capacidades para que sea de los pocos humanos que tengan contratos dependientes. Esto funciona en economías desarrolladas y ordenadas donde la informalidad es mínima. Pero no se aplica en países como los nuestros. En América Latina la informalidad va entre un 60 y 70%, por lo tanto la presión tributaria es muy baja, un 14 o 17% del PBI. Pese a todo, Canadá y algunos países nórdicos están comenzando a armar sus UBI, lo cual es una solución donde todos ganan. Desde la izquierda hasta la derecha, todo el mundo estará feliz. Desde la izquierda dirán, se logró el socialismo. Los de la derecha dirán que va a seguir funcionando la maquinaria capitalista porque la gente va a tener que consumir. Puede sonar políticamente incorrecto, pero esta será una solución que no la vieron ni Marx ni Engels ni Lenin. Al socialismo se va a llegar por la tecnología, no por la lucha de clases.

Entonces, ¿hay esperanza?
Eso ocurrirá en los países de-sarrollados. Aquí tenemos problemas serios sin resolver todavía. Sobre eso tenemos mucha gente que está desfasada pensando en los paradigmas anteriores. Muchos hablan del Bono Demográfico y dicen que América Latina tiene un momento especial porque va a tener una gran población de jóvenes. Vamos a tener jóvenes sí, pero ¿vamos a tener capacidad de emplearlos? Y no ven el crecimiento de los Ni-ni, que ni trabajan ni estudian.
Estas son las señales que ya nos indican el problema que vamos a tener. Estos chicos van a entrar al mercado laboral en un momento en que ya no se va a demandar gente.
Se las tienen que buscar ellos solos, el autoempleo y el emprendedurismo.
Pero hay que pensarlo muy rápidamente, porque cada año ingresan millones de jóvenes al mercado laboral en América Latina y esta es una bomba social incontenible.

¿Qué debilidades tiene América Latina?
Tenemos, en primer lugar, un serio problema de capacidad de generación de conocimiento. Esto va desde la educación en todos sus niveles, pero también tenemos un problema de retención de nuestros talentos. Nuestra gente se va a otros países desarrollados. Nuestros chicos más promisorios se van. Y nosotros hacemos el papel de tontos. Ahí están los concursos de Google, Facebook o Intel sobre innovación, donde hacen un screaning (escaneo) de todas las ideas brillantes de los chicos. Entonces eligen a la crema y nata del conocimiento local, a los que les ofrecen ir a Silicon Valley para implementar sus ideas. Cuál es el problema. Economía de escala. Si a China tú le quitas 100.000 talentosos no le pasa nada. En China se gradúa medio millón de ingenieros todos los años. Si le sacamos 1.000 talentosos a América Latina, y la cosa se complica. Educar sí, pero también retenerlos y atraer nuevos talentos de otros países para que aporten al desarrollo científico y tecnológico de nuestros países.
Lamentablemente lo que les podemos ofrecer es muy poco por la falta de financiamiento, por la inseguridad creciente en nuestras ciudades y falta de condiciones para otorgar una calidad de vida adecuada. Lo otro es la brecha de infraestructura. Déficit que viene de atrás y que necesitamos generar para adelante. En octubre, Corea del Sur lanza Internet 5-G (5 gigas por segundo) y la cobertura de Internet 4-G en América Latina recién se está desplegando.

EN ESTA NOTA

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